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Sunday, February 06, 2005

The Sunni/Shiite Problem

With a 60% turnout the elections in Iraq were a success. Now it has been a few days and the results are still not in - however there's no doubt that the Shiites will win and the Sunnis will lose - badly. Now what's going to happen? The Sunnis held the power for decades under Saddam Hussein (who was a Sunni) although being a Sunni didn't exactly prevent Saddam from killing you. And whether you were a Shiite or a Sunni you were still ruled by a single man. Now the Shiites will take the power and start rebuilding the country. If the Sunnis feel that they're being treated badly there's a high chance that terrorism within Iraq will increase. All this of course could lead to a civil-war.

And that's not the only danger. Many Iraqi Shiites want to turn Iraq into some Iran-type theocracy and the US has clearly expressed that this must NOT happen.

And then there are the Kurds. It seems that they don't want to get involved in any of these conflicts. Since the war ended these guys have been living their lives happily without being too concerned about terrorism. They obviously would like to establish a country of their own in northern Iraq - which is not a bad idea - it's just not going to happen.

So let's divide the country in three - let's establish a Kurdish country up north (Kurdistan), a Sunni country in the middle and let's give the south for the Shiites. This would of course require a lot of money, a lot of paperwork, a lot of energy and a lot of time & dedication - and unfortunately it's not going to happen.

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