Sunday, August 14, 2005

Afghanistan - What's Up?

So when was the last time you heard about Afghanistan? During the past two years, Iraq has drawn almost all media attention - and for a reason. Afghanistan has experienced a bunch of both positive and negative changes ever since the US-led invasion ousted the Taleban regime. Elections took place and opium production exploded. Many warlords and militias have been disarmed and more kids are attending school. The Brookings Institution recently released studies on Afghanistan & Iraq. They paint a controversial look at the two war-ravaged countries which both suffered under sadistic regimes. Here's a quick look at some key achievements, and remaining negative aspects in Afghanistan since the Taleban was ousted:

-The size of Afghan army has grown from 390 in July 2002 to 31 000 in July 2005.
-The size of Afghan police force more than doubled from July 2004 to June 2005 and is ("police forces on duty") at 50 000 at the moment. The downside is that about 600 policemen were killed in less than a year between 2004-2005.
-The number of Afghan militia forces has decreased from 90 000 (pre-war level) to 50 000 (last December).
-The number of Afghan militia forces disarmed was at 40 000 last February.
-The number of Afghan civilians killed between March and June 2005 is at 125.
-The strenght of the Taleban is still estimated at 2000-10 000 (sketchy).
-There were four suicide bombings between January 2004 & June 2005 (26 victims).
-During the elections, about 12 election workers were killed.
-The US has lost 149 soldiers since the invasion began (plus 31 non-US NATO troops).
-The number of weekly attacks on coalition forces dropped from 10-15 in 2004 to 5 (so far) in 2005.
-ISAF (non-US NATO forces) presence in Afghanistan has risen from 5000 in 2002 to 8000 in 2005.
-OEF (US forces only) presence in Afghanistan has risen from 4000 in 2002 to 20 000 in 2005.
-Opium production increased from 185 (metric tons) to 4200 between 2001 & 2004.
-GDP Per Capita has increased from 123$ in 2001 to 228$ in 2005 (IMF projection).
-GDP growth rate in 2004 was 7.5% (IMF projection).
-Primary School Enrollment increased from 1 million (pre-war) to 4.8 million (last December), mostly due to the fact that girls started attending.

Some organizations and media outlets have conducted opinion polls around Afghanistan to find out how Afghans feel about their current situation. Here are some of the findings (check the study for sources & organizers):

89% of the population believes that Afghanistan is moving in the right direction. 84% thinks their living standards have improved since the end of the Taleban. 76% thinks their security situation improved within a year. 65% share a favorable view of the US (84% for the UN and 80% to aid workers). Disarming militia commanders and warlords seems to be a priority of most Afghans. 52% now believe that they're free to express their opinions - a major increase from 1% during the Taleban. Most people also feel more secure now than during the Taleban.

Drug production continues to be the biggest problem in the country. 40-60% of the Afghan economy is believed to be devoted to the production of drugs. And this doesn't concern only Afghanistan since a large part of these drugs are exported straight to Europe. So far, all efforts to try to deal with the problem have been ineffective.

Aid & assitance from foreign countries has been very much welcome and vital. Many nations and organizations have committed themselves to Afghanistan. The country has steadily received massive fundings from abroad but a large amount still remains to be given. USAID lists reconstruction projects and other developments - a lot of progress has been made in many significan areas. Here's some:
-"To date, USAID has built or refurbished 315 schools, primarily in remote rural areas, since 2002. An additional 184 schools are under construction."
-"(USAid has) Constructed 287 health clinics since 2002. An additional 43 clinics are currently under contract."
-"USAID is supporting privatization of state-owned enterprises as a major prerequisite for a viable market economy."

Conclusion: As the Afghan army grows and warlords are being disarmed, the security situation in Afghanistan is getting better and leaves room for other activities. It remains unclear how the Afghan government is going to deal with the massive opium fields in the country and how this affects the economy. Afghanistan undoubtedly remains a part of the third world but at least many obstacles have been removed - and the international community has promised to devote time and money to see Afghanistan become a success. That just isn't going to happen overnight.

The Brookings Institution report on Afghanistan

CIA World Factbook - Afghanistan

The Brookings Institution

USAid on Afghanistan



Anonymous Anonymous said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

August 14, 2005 9:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think a part of the success expectations derive from the money that comes in from opium. Part of that money goes to the Taleban, part to warlords who can't completely disarm if they want to control the opium production in their areas. As long as the central government doesn't interfere with their opium business, there's relative peace. It still looks like "stability" in Afghanistan means a narco-state.

August 16, 2005 5:49 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Saanko kysyä yhden asian?

Miksi kirjoitat blogia?

Miksi luulet sen olevan tarpeellista, että ihmiset pääsevät lukemaan sinun (n. 20 vuotiaan keskiluokkaisen kokoomusta äänestävän suomalaismiehen, jos saan esittää näin rohkeita arvioita) "näkemyksiä" maailman tapahtumista? Luuletko että se on erityisen kiinnostavaa tai viihdyttävää? Luuletko että mielipiteesi ovat niin ainutlaatuisia ja arvokkaita että ne on *pakko* päästä jakamaan muulle ihmisrodulle? Luuletko että saat bloggaamalla levitettyä maailmankatsomustasi ja täten parantaa maailmaa?

En halua väitellä, olen vain aidosti kiinnostunut motiiveistasi.

August 21, 2005 5:39 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If I as a non-blogger may interfere with the question "why is Mikko blogging", I think writing a blog should be like writing a diary, no explanation needed.

I find this blog valuable because the postings are often quite long and informative. The main purpose seems to be to present an argument rather than just stirring debate. Mikko's views (kokoomus youth or whatever that may be, I don't know) are there but there are many-sided links to news sites, helping to form a view independent from Mikko.

I don't read the blog because of Mikko's views, it's rather because of the content. Anyone who posts stuff on Afghanistan is doing valuable work because that is one of the issues the international community should be talking about but isn't really.

August 22, 2005 3:25 PM  
Blogger Mikko Sandt said...

Saanko kysyä yhden asian?

So why do some people feel the need to explain every detail of their personal life online? I couldn't care less but many do.

This is partly about developing yourself. A few years from now I can read what I used to write today and spot any possible errors and note how my opinions have evolved over the years. Forcing yourself to write down your opinions is valuable - making it public gives you more motivation & purpose. You could say that this is a part of my "partly" Objectivist worldview.

And then there are posts which provide information (like Afghanistan) which I can later use in internet conversations. I can simply point people to my entries instead of suggesting them to look for the info themselves (which they wouldn't do anyway).

En halua väitellä, olen vain aidosti kiinnostunut motiiveistasi.

Then you can leave the almost-character attacks somewhere else.

August 23, 2005 2:36 PM  

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